The current average price for gasoline in the US is $4.17 per gallon, according to AAA’s April 28 data.
That’s 15 cents higher than a week ago and $1.02 more than the year-ago average, or a 32% increase.
President Trump recently said he expects higher gas prices to last until at least the November mid-term elections.
Prices are based on the price of crude oil, which accounts for 40-70% of the cost at the pump. The Brent crude international price of oil is currently about $110 per barrel. It was $70.75 the day before the US and Israel attacked Iran, which translates to an increase of 56%.
The United States is the world’s top oil producer at 21.91 million barrels of oil per day (Mbopd), followed by Saudi Arabia at 11.13 Mbopd and Russia at 10.75 Mbopd, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The US imports little crude oil from the Middle East, roughly 8% in 2025. While the United States is unlikely to see energy shortages as the war with Iran drags on — unlike some countries — it does mean that US gas prices will continue to be influenced by the higher price of oil.
However, according to a Chevron (NYSE:CVX) executive, prices would be even higher if it wasn’t for the crude oil the United States has begun importing from Venezuela.
Currently the only American oil company operating in Venezuela, Chevron is bringing in tankers filled with 400,000 barrels of oil to its Pascagoula refinery in Mississippi, which can process a maximum of 330,000 barrels a day of heavy crude oil like Venezuela’s into gasoline and other oil end products including diesel, jet fuel, LPG, petroleum coke and petrochemicals.
Andy Walz, Chevron’s president of downstream, midstream and chemicals, told a CBS News reporter that there was a period when Chevron couldn’t get access to Venezuelan crude.
“Now we're running about 100,000 barrels a day so this will last us about four days,” he said. “This ship is lowering prices in America because we have access to a new supply point that we didn't have previously.”
Asked whether gas would be more than $4/gallon without the tankers, Walz said “I'm not going to say a lot, but we would be paying more. Less supply means higher price.”
BBC News clarified that, while access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves — the world’s largest — hasn’t yet meant lower gas prices, because the US is just as susceptible to global oil market fluctuations as other countries, Chevron believes its bet on Venezuelan crude will end up benefitting consumers.
“When things do get back to normal, that additional supply out of Venezuela will actually translate to lower prices for Americans. So it will in the future, but it isn't having an impact now,” Walz said.
He added that Chevron plans to increase its Venezuelan production by about 50% over the next couple of years. The company currently imports the equivalent of 250,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude per day, so a 50% increase would bump it up to 350,000 to 400,000 bopd.
Venezuela is gradually increasing its oil production after its president, Nicolas Maduro, was captured and brought to the United States to stand trial on narcoterrorism and other charges.
Despite hosting about 17% of global supply, because of dilapidated infrastructure, the country only produces about 1% of the world's oil.
However, during March, the country exported 1 million bopd for the first time since September.
PBS News reported the Trump administration “selectively” removed sanctions to enable the shipping and sale of Venezuelan oil.
Various estimates agree that Venezuela needs to generate more than $100 billion over the next decade to restore its oil production capacity, UPI reported this week. Just maintaining 1.1 Mbopd would require investments exceeding $50 billion, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy. To get to 3Mbopd, Venezuela would need about $183 billion.
Fortune wrote that Arguably the best-case scenario for Venezuelan oil production is it grows from producing nearly 1 million barrels of oil a day late last year to churning out about 1.2 million barrels daily by the end of 2026, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.
The magazine noted momentum is building, with Venezuela passing new laws to open the industry to outside investment. Chevron has agreed to expand its largest project in the country’s Orinoco Belt, Shell (NYSE:SHEL) plans to develop “gassier regions” onshore and offshore, and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) plans to send a small team to Venezuela to assess the situation.
Meanwhile, oilfield services companies have started moving rigs and specialized equipment stored in warehouses for years, for assembly and repair, as the government advances a review of oil and gas contracts that could lead to fresh activity, Reuters said this week, citing four sources involved in the preparations.
Washington in 2019 imposed sanctions on the country’s energy sector, limiting activities of U.S. service firms including SLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International.
The equipment being dusted off would service projects operated by joint ventures between state-run PDVSA and private companies in the Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo, the country’s two main oil regions.
By Andrew Topf for Oilprice.com
