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USD / CAD - Canadian Dollar Adrift

- Loonie bounces off resistance

- EURUSD sinks on energy crisis

- US dollar modestly firmer in overnight action

USDCAD Snapshot open 1.2865-69, overnight range 1.2866-1.2818, close 1.2847, WTI oil $98.46, Gold $1720.31

The Canadian dollar bounced off of resistance yesterday and drifted aimlessly overnight. Liquidity is poor as traders bide their time until Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC meeting.

Tensions in Europe are elevated again. Russia promised to restore gas flows if Canada delivered a much-need turbine to Gazprom, which happened. Europeans were elated when Russia turned on the gas taps but quickly became unhappy, especially Germans, when the volume, which was previously at just 40% of capacity was reduced by another 20%.

Germany is the economic engine of the EU and the country most dependent on Russian gas. The EU decided to show support to Berlin, by promising to cut consumption by 15%.

The ongoing EU energy crisis helped curtail WTI selling pressures and prices climbed from $95.90/barrel to $98.96/b, which also provided some support to the Canadian dollar.

Asian equity indexes were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.16%, while Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.26%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index outperformed, rising 1.67% on news Alibaba will make its primary listing in Hong Kong.

European bourses are in the red except for the UK FTSE100, which is 0.66% higher.

US equity futures are lower on negative sentiment after Walmart cut its profit outlook and ahead of earnings reports from Microsoft and Alphabet. Gold trades lower while WTI is 1.56% higher.

The US 10-year Treasury yield topped out at 2.84% yesterday and is trading at the overnight session low of 2.761%.

EURUSD traded negatively, falling from 1.0249 to 1.0138 in NY. Traders are concerned about the ECB’s ability to raise interest rates in the face of a deteriorating EU economic outlook due to the Russia/Ukraine war and a looming energy crisis. EURUSD technicals are bearish below 1.0270.

GBPUSD dropped from 1.2089 to 1.1983 in NY despite a new forecast from Barclay’s Bank predicting the Bank of England will hike rates by 50 bp on August 4.

USDJPY bottomed out at 136.29 in Asia, then rallied to 136.84 in Europe, with traders jockeying for position ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD traded sideways in Asia then dropped in Europe, reaching their overnight session lows in early NY.

Today’s US data includes Cas-Shiller Home Price Index, Housing Price Index, New Homes Sales, and Consumer Confidence.