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USD / CAD - Canadian Dollar rally stalling

- Economists are split as to whether BoC cuts Wednesday or in July

- Opec announces that production cuts will stay until December 2025.

- US dollar opens defensively to start the week.

USDCAD: open 1.3664, overnight range 1.3606-1.3669, close 1.3631, WTI $76.83, Gold, $2327.80.

The Canadian dollar has drifted lower in early trading, mainly due to broad-based, but modest US dollar demand against the rest of the G-7 major currencies. FX trading is rather cautious ahead of a busy week which includes Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data and Bank of Canada and European Central Bank monetary policy meetings.

The big news on the weekend was the result of OPEC’s 37th Ministerial meeting, when the cartel agreed to extend most of its deep oil output cuts into 2025. OPEC+ members agreed to extend 3.66 million bpd of production cuts until the end of 2025 and keep the other 2.2 million bpd cuts that were supposed to expire at the end of June until the end of September 2024. Analysts suggest the cuts validate the cartel’s forecast that oil demand will rebound. The news didn’t do much for WTI prices which fell from 77.52 to 76.40.

The Mexican peso was in the spotlight following this weekend’s elections. USDMXN jumped from 16.9179 to 17.3214 after Presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum and her Morena party earned a resounding victory, giving the left-wing party a “super majority.”

EURUSD is trading just above the bottom of its 1.0827-1.0860 range. Traders ignored Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data due to caution ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting.

GBPUSD is trading defensively in a 1.2694-1.2756 range despite better-than-expected Manufacturing PMI (actual 51.2) in May which an analyst said was “a solid revival of activity in the UK manufacturing sector.”

USDJPY traded poorly in a 156.82-157.48 band mainly due to the decline in US Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.473% from 4.512%. Manufacturing PMI was 50.4 compared to 50.5 in April but the results were mostly ignored.

AUDUSD bounced about in a 0.6633-0.6665 range garnering a modicum of support from a modest improvement in China Manufacturing PMI (actual 51.7 forecast 51.5, previously 51.4).

The only data of note is the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data.