Canada's total oil production is forecast to increase to 5.6 million barrels per day by 2035 — a 33% rise over 2017 levels, according to a new industry forecast by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
The growth in oil output is expected to be driven by growth in Alberta’s oil sands, notes the CAPP report, which also states that Canada needs to become more competitive and build more pipelines if it wants to get that additional oil to new markets around the world.
CAPP's new report says the rise in the Canadian totals will be driven by an increase in oil sands production — to 4.2 million barrels per day from 2.7 million barrels per day currently — even with a decrease in capital spending in the oil sands for the fourth consecutive year.
But CAPP forecasts conventional oil production through 2035 will remain largely flat in Western Canada — rising to 1.33 million barrels per day from 1.32 million barrels per day in 2017. The industry group identified the greatest potential for growth in the Montney and Duvernay formations in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, which are expected to add about 500,000 barrels per day of pentanes and condensates by 2026.
Oil production in Eastern Canada is forecast to rise to 290,000 barrels per day by 2025 from major offshore projects such as Hebron, Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose. Hebron will account for the bulk of the production highs over that period. But beyond 2025, production in Eastern Canada will drop to 70,000 barrels per day by 2035, states the CAPP report.
