- US PCE index data is stale and should be a non-event.
- Canada employment report on tap.
- US dollar is grinding higher, albeit modestly.
USDCAD open: 1.3946, overnight range 1.3941-1.3961, close 1.3959, WTI 59.58, Gold 4222.25
The Canadian dollar is trading sideways in a relatively tight range and is on track to close the week with minor gains, but that could shift when the Canadian labour force survey drops this morning.
Analysts expect a loss of 5,000 jobs in November following the 66,660 increase in October, a gain which was driven entirely by part-time positions.
US Trade Representative Jameson Greer floated the idea of withdrawing from the USMCA agreement outright, and Washington appears to be using that threat as leverage in ongoing talks with Canada and Mexico.
WTI oil is holding inside a 59.43–59.79 range, supported by the lack of progress in negotiations toward a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire.
FX markets are subdued, and today’s PCE data, once a market mover before the government shutdown, is so dated that it should carry no weight for traders or the Fed. A rate cut next week is fully baked in. The NEC Director, who is reportedly in line to replace Powell, argued that real wage gains outpaced inflation and said the Fed should ease policy. Michigan Consumer Sentiment is forecast at 52, just a tick above last month’s reading.
Asian equity trading was mixed, with BoJ rate chatter dragging the Topix down 1.09%, while Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.19% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.58%.
European markets opened with a mild bid as the DAX rose 0.61%, the CAC-40 gained 0.33%, and the FTSE 100 added 0.09%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.20%. The US Dollar Index is 99.00, the US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.112%, and gold is trading at $4225.18.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1641–1.1672 range in a directionless overnight session. Traders stayed fixated on the US rate narrative and brushed aside the slight improvement in Eurozone Q3 GDP and modest employment gains, leaving the single currency drifting to the lower end of its band in early New York.
GBPUSD moved inside a 1.3321–1.3363 band with little enthusiasm. The currency may be finding some support from a BoA projection that the pair could climb to 1.45 in 2026 due to a softer US dollar backdrop. Domestic housing data added no spark, showing flat prices for November.
USDJPY churned within a 154.35–155.22 range as the pair initially dipped on renewed BoJ tightening speculation before bouncing on profit-taking. Traders also noted comments from Japan’s trade minister confirming that companies have filed lawsuits in the US seeking tariff refunds they argue were applied unlawfully.
AUDUSD traded in a 0.6607–0.6637 range, supported mainly by broad US dollar weakness tied to firm expectations for Fed rate cuts. With no major domestic catalysts, the Australian dollar is simply following the global anti-dollar drift.
