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Beware of the Coinbase, Robinhood, and Strategy Breakout

Not all stock breakouts are equal. Last Friday, three fintech and cryptocurrency holder platforms gained the most.

Coinbase (COIN) gained 13% despite still trading at a premium valuation. The breathtaking rebound in Bitcoin (BTC-USD), from a $61,395 low on Feb. 6 to over $70,000, boosted COIN stock.

Robinhood (HOOD) gained 13.95% to close at $82.82. Savvy investors who open a six-month chart might speculate that the downtrend has too much momentum. HOOD stock failed to break out above $150 last fall. Both firms depended on their total addressable market expanding from both stock transaction volumes (to earn fees) and on cryptocurrency demand.

Unfortunately, cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH-USD), Doge coin, and LIF3 have tremendous downside whenever Bitcoin falters.

Strategy (MSTR) is an even riskier position. The company is a software firm in principle only. It leveraged its balance sheet to buy Bitcoin. MSTR stock gained 26.11% to close near $135 last Friday. It lost $42.93 a share. Revenue of $122.99 million is up by just 1.9% Y/Y.

Strategy held 713,502 bitcoin, worth $54.26 billion. By comparison, its market cap topped $44.83 billion. Stock markets assigned a $943 million premium to the stock price.

Its average Bitcoin cost is $76,052.

Crypto Winter Might End

Bears hold an 11.81% short float against MSTR stock. While this is a profitable position, the crypto winter has a history of ending when bears least expect it.