- Prime Minster Carney in Washington to meet with Trump
- No US data today, but plenty of Fed speakers.
- US dollar trading sideways
USDCAD open 1.3955, overnight range 1.3941-1.3963, close, 1.3942, WTI 61.56, Gold 3956.84
The Canadian dollar had another uneventful overnight trading session with direction tied to broad US dollar sentiment. However, the risk of a more severe economic slowdown from Trump’s trade war with Canada suggests that the Loonie has far more downside than upside.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s meeting with Trump today is not expected to yield anything in the way of tariff relief.
WTI oil is consolidating yesterdays gains in a 61.28-62.04 range. Gains are limited due to ongoing concerns that the latest Opec production increases will exacerbate a near term oil glut.
With official reports off the table, traders are turning their focus to comments from Federal Reserve officials for clues on how quickly and how far interest rates may be trimmed. Remarks from Governors Michelle Bowman, Stephen Miran, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are expected to draw added attention.
Asian equity trading was directionless. Japan’s Topix closed unchanged, Australia’s ASX 200 slipped 0.27%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.67%.
As of 6:45 a.m. EDT, European equities are in positive territory. The German DAX is up 0.21%, and the French CAC-40 has gained 0.38% and the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.14%. S&P 500 futures are flat. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is 98.40. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.171%.
EURUSD slipped within a 1.1660-1.1717 band. The single currency’s brief rebound to 1.1721 in New York owed more to profit-taking than optimism after losses tied to France’s government collapse. Debt concerns remain acute — French OAT yields have risen above Italy’s BTPs for the first time since the euro’s creation in 1999. German factory orders fell 0.8% m/m in August.
GBPUSD tracked the euro lower, trading between 1.3430 and 1.3487 with a soft tone. The spike in French OAT yields dragged UK gilts higher, reminding investors that, while Britain left the EU, European market anxieties still echo across the Channel. Halifax data showed house prices slipping 0.3% m/m in September after August’s 0.3% gain.
USDJPY consolidated earlier gains inside a 150.24-150.83 range. The selection of Sanae Takaichi as LDP leader — and Japan’s next Prime Minister — sparked talk of fresh fiscal stimulus and resistance to Bank of Japan tightening.
AUDUSD retreated from 0.6625 to 0.6586 as it unwound prior gains and stayed locked in a familiar 0.6520-0.6630 corridor that has contained movement for two weeks. Consumer confidence slipped 1.2 points to 85.1 after the RBA kept rates unchanged, weighing modestly on sentiment.
Canada’s August trade deficit is expected to have widened to $5.55 billion from $4.94 billion in July.
